[♙] Sanctions Und Einhörner
The test of a statesman, was his ability to recognise the real relationship of forces and to make this knowledge serve his ends - Kissinger
A unicorn portion of the Royal Coat of Arms at the entrance to Buckingham Palace has been knocked off by an incoming lorry, leaving a hole on the crest│02 October 2019
“If you think that the West can develop sanctions that will maximize the pain for Russia by minimizing the risks of financial stability and price stability for the West, then you can also trust unicorns.”
- Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar (formerly with the NY Fed, IMF and Treasury Dept)
From rubble to gold-backed ruble ₽
All Wars Are Bankers' Wars
When the U.S. and UK imposed sanctions on Russian banks the value of the ruble ₽ transiently collapsed. It has since rebounded to pre sanction levels due to various geopolitical economic manoeuvres.
The currency trades (as of this writing) at 81.7 ₽ to the US dollar, almost on par to February 23rd (pre Ukraine special operations*) prior levels.
"The situation would be even worse if imports or supplies of Russian oil and natural gas were to be halted. A significant recession in Germany would then be virtually unavoidable,"
- Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank CEO
Chancellor Olaf Scholz maintained that Germany will continue to buy billions of dollars’ worth of natural gas and oil from Russia each week ($220 million daily for Russian energy) for the foreseeable future to keep German car companies and factories operating at full throttle.
Germany will face a steep recession if there is a stop to imports or delivery of Russian gas and oil.1
“We are pursuing a strategy that will make us independent of Russian gas, coal and oil, but just not right away,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy and energy minister. This sentiment was echoed by Lars Klingbeil, leader of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party. “An immediate embargo of Russian natural gas would be the wrong way to go.”
Meanwhile, the UK is to phase out Russian oil (provides 5% of the UK's gas supplies) by the end of the year, and the EU is reducing its Russian gas imports by two-thirds - the bloc imported 26% of its crude and 46% of its gas from Russia in 2020.
The United States has tapped its strategic oil reserves, releasing 180 million barrels into the global market, to help bring down gasoline prices and counter the reduction in Russian oil supplies.
"So for next winter - what can make a difference is fuel switching such as opening up coal-fired power plants, as Italy and Germany have plans to do in case of an emergency."
The European Commission proposed a phased ban of €4 billion ($4.3 billion) worth of Russian coal imports per year as part of a fifth package of sanction.
The coal ban will "make an already tight European supply situation even tighter and will lead to a scramble to find alternative coal sources."
- Matthew Jones, lead analyst for EU power and carbon at ICIS
Other countries could step in to buy Russian coal however.
The IEA expects India's coal imports to rise 4% in 2024, and more than 6% in Southeast Asia. Russia has already benefited from a jump in exports to China following Xi Jinping's block on Australian imports
In essence, coal, oil and natural gas exports from Russia must continue regardless because Europe is heavily reliant on such, and the world is facing an energy shortage independent of the Ukraine-Russia special operations.2
Russia is the third biggest producer of oil in the world, behind the US and Saudi Arabia. Of the five million barrels of crude oil it exports each day, more than half of that goes to Europe.
Over the weekend, Lithuania cut itself off entirely of gas imports from Russia - thanks to strategic foresight of building the off-shore Klaipė da LNG terminal in 2014, including a small scale LNG reloading station in the port of Klaipėda, with the aim of acquiring a FSRU vessel after 2024.
The Klaipeda LNG terminal has a gas interconnection with Poland, and thus provides potential strategic gas supplies to neighbouring Baltic neighbours Estonia and Latvia somewhat 3. The Baltic gas market is currently being served by gas reserves stored underground in Latvia.
“From this month on — no more Russian gas in Lithuania. Years ago, my country made decisions that today allow us with no pain to break energy ties with the aggressor. If we can do it, the rest of Europe can do it too!”
- Minister of Energy, Dainius Kreivys
Meanwhile, it was reported that U.S Senate members, politicians and their families helpfully loaded up on various defense (OKE, LMT, CVX) and lucrative stock options (SQ, MCK, NVDA) in the week leading up to February 24th, as a matter of public record.4
This was preceded by a “wag the dog” scenario whereby relentless wall to wall MSM coverage of an imminent Russian invasion, and Ukraine joining NATO were weaponised to provocate and nettle. 5
Regardless of the realpolitik, and foreign policy manouvering of state actors involved - the reality of the matter is a multipolar turf war has been in play since 2014 6 - resulting in international sanctions and counter sanctions.
This involves a cross spectrum of a hybrid financal-trade-geopolitical-cyber warfare and is largey driven by destructive net zero policies - driving up gas by 40% and oil by 80%, and resultant increase in food, energy and logistics costs in 2021.
A severe energy supply shock in 2022 within a 4th Turning, would not be unprecedented. Afterall, the roadmap towards building, green, better is paved with greta intentions!
To wit, it will cost an estimated $150 trillion7 in 30 years to achieve Net Zero in America, in addition to the $30 trillion8 U.S. Debt!
Net Zero is thus a greta reinvention of the magic money printing tree, providing an endless stream of taxpayer and debt-funded "investments" to special friends & family, which in turn need a just as constant degree of debt monetization by central banks.
Massive wealth redistribtion neccesitates a planned demoltion of sovereign economies - lob in at least seven rate hikes and Fed tightening, food & energy scarcity, and wage stagflation; there will be an untold amount of short to medium term pain and readjustment.
The transition towrds new wealth growth is potentially counterbalanced by disruptor technological innovations to build a Fifth Industrial Revolution (5IR) ecosystem9 leading to a 50-100x $150T growth opportunity - mass infrastructure investments and adoption of green hydrogen, electrification & solid state batteries (SSBT) with a refocus on Human beings, being front and centre in the production process augmented by the 4IR automation.
Ultimately, such innovations in SSBT could power human wearables that enable body-area-networks [BAN]10 as part of the 5IR - a wireless network of wearable computing devices.
As such, ”inanimate objects will start to interact with us: we will be surrounded - on streets, in homes, in appliances, on our bodies and possibly in our heads - by things that "think".
Forget local area networks - these will be body area networks.
There just could be a few more elites joining the exclusive trillionaire club by the end of the decade!
* At present, climate change investments are being led by China and the United States. Getting to net zero will ultimately require a 5th industrial revolution, powered by existing and new technologies throughout all sectors of the global economy. In accordane with UN Agenda 2030 (net zero means greenhouse emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050)
[] 2014 to Present - A Deep Dive
Dedolarization & the Multipolar World
A Bipolar World & The Cold War (1945–1953)
Recall, that at the end of the Second World war a bipolar world between two the US and USSR bloc emerged. The conflicts of interest between the new world powers gradually multiplied, and a climate of fear and suspicion reigned.
The USSR came out of the war territorially enlarged and with an aura of prestige from having fought Hitler’s Germany. Its heroic resistance to the enemy, was exemplified by the victory at Stalingrad. The USSR also offered an ideological, economic and social model extending as never before to the rest of Europe. The Red Army, unlike the US army, was not demobilised at the end of the war. The Soviet Union thus had a real numerical superiority in terms of men and heavy weapons.11
The US bloc now owned more than two thirds of the world’s gold reserves and the dollar became the primary international currency. It’s navy and air force were unrivalled, and until 1949 it was the only country with the capacity to produce nuclear weapons. It also confirmed its status as the world’s leading economic power, in terms of both the volume of trade and industrial and agricultural production.
2014 Obama Doctrine
”United States will use military force, unilaterally if necessary, when our core interests demand it.” but for indirect threats or humanitarian crises, "we must mobilize partners to take collective action."
Therefore ”The doctrine is we will engage, but we preserve all our capabilities.”
Between 2014-2018, the US sanctioned both Russia over Crimea, whilst launching a punitive trade war with China. The resultant Obama doctrine neccesitated a pivot to the Pacific, away from the Middle-East. 12
The resultant policies would later seed disatisfaction, whereby the Biden administration’s lack of leadership, foreign policy and courtship of the Qataris, Kuwaitis and Saudis led to souring of the relationship with the Middle East; such that in 2022 following the US sanctions against Russia, the OPEC nations ignored Bidens call to increase oil production - inflated oil and gas prices would help recover some of the oil glut produced by the US unto the markets and lead to the release of the US reserve supply to combat US hyperflation and imminent 2023 recession.
As such, since 2014 “replacing the dollar in trade settlements became a necessity to sidestep U.S. sanctions against Russia” following Moscow's estrangement from the West over its annexation of Crimea - which severely limited the ability of state firms and banks to raise financing in Western markets. China also began seeing value in this initiative after the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the use of punitive financial measures by the US.
And thus, Dedollarization became a priority for Russia and China’s ever expanding bilateral coooperation in trade, energy and geo political strategy.
2019 Russia-China Financial Alliance & Dedollarization
By mid-2016, Russia had lost an estimated $170 billion due to financial sanctions, with another $400 billion in lost revenues from oil and gas; strategic manoeuvring by the Atlanticists, US and Saudi’s of the petrodollar resulted in both an oil glut and artificially decreased oil prices.
The seeds of a fundamental shift away from the unipolarity of the US$ petrodollar hegemony into a multipolar world had begun.
This led to a natural Russian-Chinese expanding cooperation on energy, establishing a three-year currency swap deal worth 150 billion yuan (about $24.5 billion). This deal was renewed for another three years in 2017. There was further bilateral trade in 2018 following the US imposition of heavy tariffs on Chinese goods and the onset of the US-China trade war.
By 2020, the Russia-China "dedollarization" fast approached a "breakthrough moment" whereby the greenback was used for only 46% of settlements. Trade between the de facto alliance fell below 50% for the first time.
”If China and Russia devise successful alternatives to the dollar-centered financial system, and if these alternatives gain significant international traction, we would be witnessing a cataclysmic moment in great power rivalry.” - WaPo
Further decisive financial manoeuvres involved boosting the renminbi’s role as an international currency for payments and reserves.
To encourage wider adoption of its currency, China has given more than 30 countries renminbi access through bilateral swap agreements. China and Russia each scaled back their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Russia channelling cash into renminbi holdings. And China has ramped up the digital currency drive it began in 2014, with the goal of making it easier to hold renminbi.
数字人民币 e-CNY
”The third and last leg of these efforts, still underway, aims to create alternative payments and messaging systems allowing countries to use home and partner currencies instead of dollars or euros to settle trade and investment deals.”
China faces the dillema of ascending to world reserve currency status, without desiring the influence of open markets, and a repeat of prior Western backed colour revolutions13 in lieu of world reserve currency status.
As such, the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP, Chinese: 数字货币电子支付; pinyin: Shùzì huòbì diànzǐ zhīfù or digital yuan is designed to move instantaneously in both domestic and international transactions, and be a hybrid financial instrument that enables transactions to take place between two offline devices, accepted as interchangable legal tender and the earliest adoption of digital currency or CBDC.
The US and Uk are looking into following suit.
The digital RMB, was developed in partnership with commercial banks and other organizations in 2017 involving chinese technology firms such as Alibaba (through its affiliate Ant Group, Tencent (which owns WeChat), Huawei, JD.com and UnionPay.
Local governments, in partnership with private businesses have distributed more than 150 million RMB as incentive to attract test users of digital RMB and to stimulate further consumption.
Since then, an extended trial of the currency's functionality* and monetary social cedit integration has seen a wide usage via smartphone apps involving US$13.8 billion of transactions; 261 million users across ten cities (Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu, Xiong'an, Shanghai, Hainan, Changsha, Xi'an, Qingdao and Dalian)
* Digital Yuan usage trial: tested reliability, stability, ease of use, money laundering & tax evasion prevention and terror financing
New Financial World Order
The seizure of Russian foreign assets, freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, and Russian gold sanctions effectively ended the Bretton Woods II agreements.
In a nutshell, there is a full on hybrid War for a “new financial world order”.
The sanctions knock on effects disincentivise purchases of Russian goods and raw materials, leading to massive undervalued prices. On the other hand, this results in eyewatering ncreased prices oil, wheat and key resources from alternate market sources. The net result is the People’s Bank of China is able to purchase Russian commodities at a handsome haircut against US dollars.
When this crisis (and war) is over, the US dollar should be much weaker and the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities… [und] when this war is over, ‘money’ will never be the same… and bitcoin (if it still exists then) will likely benefit from all of this.
- Zoltan Pozsar, March 7, 2022
Cumulatively, the sum total of economic financial warfare, sanctions & foreign asset seizures has galvanised both Russia and China to collectively respond with further dedollarization and bring forward alternate cross border payment frameworks.
Ultimately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a proxy for a larger global turf war on Oil, Energy, and world currency reserve status leading to “regime change in the financial markets.”
Russia’s answer to Western sanctions and active attempts to sink the ruble is in itself, ingenius. Fatefully, on Friday the 25th March, 2022 the Bank of Russia set the price of gold at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram - thus linking the ruble to gold.
Gold trades on international markets at about US$ 62 per gram which is equivalent to (5000 / 62) = about 80.5.
Since gold trades currently in US dollars, this set a $1940 floor price for the ruble in terms of the US dollar, whereby 5000 rubles per gram is 155,500 rubles per troy ounce of gold, and a RUB / USD floor of about 80. Markets and arbitrage traders have since taken note, driving the RUB / USD exchange rate higher.
"It's not enough that we all turn down the heating by 2 degrees now" given that "Russia covers 55 percent of German natural gas consumption. If Russian gas disappeared overnight, "many things would collapse here."
”A delivery stop for a short time would perhaps open the eyes of many - on both sides. It would make clear the magnitude of the consequences." LNG imports cannot be increased quickly enough to replace all Russian gas flows in the short term.”
”At BASF, we would have to scale back or completely shut down production at our largest site in Ludwigshafen if the supply fell significantly and permanently below 50 percent of our maximum natural gas requirement.”
”To put it bluntly: This could bring the German economy into its worst crisis since the end of the Second World War and destroy our prosperity. For many small and medium-sized companies in particular, it could mean the end. “
- BASF CEO
In response to the sanctions, Putin signed a decree whereby Russia will continue to supply gas at set volumes and prices; however buyers of gas are required to open special accounts in Russian banks and pay in rubles, in order to increase settlements in national currencies, starting April 1st.14
Putin said that active contracts will be halted if demands are not met, and explained that the move is meant to increase settlements in national currencies.
His move was rejected by European governments, with Germany – Europe’s industrial powerhouse – calling it “political blackmail”
“If such payments [in roubles] are not made, we will consider this a default on the part of buyers, with all the ensuing consequences. Nobody sells us anything for free, and we are not going to do charity either – that is, existing contracts will be stopped,”
Oil and natural gas are normally paid for in dollars.
Thus, when Putin signed into decree that Russian oil and natural gas bought by “unfriendly states” imposing sanctions be paid for in rubles. This mystified many.
In a inspired masterstroke, account holders wishing to purchase gas can do so via the purchasing of rubles through the Central Bank of Russia in exchange of USD/Euro.
This technically, does not violate the letter of the law of the sanctions, and is not unusual during the imposition of capital controls, settled in their national currency denominations.
The net result is, Europe continues its gas purchases without risk of default, Rusia gets to continue trading (it has reopened its stock market for full trading) and the rubkle is strengthened.
Bretton Woods Alternatives
Credit Suisse's markets guru Zoltan Pozsar notes that “arising from the ashes of the current geopolitical conflict, a commodities-driven monetary world order would replace the current one.” 15
”Commodity reserves will be an essential part of Bretton Woods III, and historically wars are won by those who have more food and energy supplies,” repackaged with net zero carbon trading policies and ESG regulatory enforcement.
In a case where commodities dictate the new world monetary order, factors like the geopolitical standing of the commodities supplier in the international community, the real added cost on foreign cargo given the shift in trade partners, and the protection of the safety of shipping these commodities must be considered.
In the new world order, central banks would create
- eurorenminbi (to accumulate, for purchasing Chinese Treasuries)
- outside money eg. gold and silver (as opposed to G7 inside money)
- commodity reserves (instead of foreign currency reserves)
”When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities.”
And so, we come unto recent remarks and policies by Biden whereby his conclusing remarks at the Business Roundtable’s CEO Quarterly Meeting 16, were quite telling: “there’s going to be a new world order out there, and we’ve got to lead it. And we’ve got to unite the rest of the free world in doing it.”
And thus, All Wars Are Bankers' Wars!
Further Notes & Detailed Analysis
“The sons of Japheth were Gomer, Javan… The sons of Gomer: Ashkenaz, Riphath, and Togarmah.” Genesis 10:2,3
“By these were the isles of the Gentiles divided in their lands.” Genesis 10:5
Reuters | Germany faces steep recession if Russian oil and gas halted, bank lobby says
FRANKFURT, April 4 (Reuters) - Germany will face a steep recession if there is a stop to imports or delivery of Russian gas and oil, a top German bank lobby warned on Monday.
Europe's largest economy is heavily dependent upon Russia for energy, and nations banks echoed concerns over possible energy disruption expressed by big names in industry in recent days.
Christian Sewing, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, said in his role as president of Germany's BDB bank lobby that banks expected sharply slower growth this year of around 2% due to the war in Ukraine.
* special operations | military activities by "specially designated, organized, selected, trained, and equipped forces using unconventional techniques and modes of employment"
In context, President Vladimir Putin authorised "a special military operation" against Ukraine with the aim to demilitarise Russia's southern neighbour. "Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide... for the last eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.
Klaipė da LNG terminal
The LNG terminal in Klaipėda has a regasification capacity
of up to 44 TWh a year, which can fully meet the natural gas
needs of Lithuanian consumers.
It also contributes greatly to the security of energy supply as it could be used even in case of disruption of gas supply from the East.
It also opens options for gas deliveries to any other market
connected to Lithuania’s transmission system via pipeline in-
terconnection. LNG import enables natural gas to come from
diverse sources.
During the period of LNG terminal operations in Lithuania, there have been LNG cargoes imported from four different continents. The opportunity to source natural gas from any of the large numbers of LNG suppliers worldwide
can be used by any natural gas supplier in the region due to transparent third-party access model implemented at Klaipė da LNG terminal.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, many politicians loaded up on stocks (February 22nd) that have gained significantly in the last month. Some of the most notable purchases by US Congress members included Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), and Block, Inc. (NYSE:SQ)” | Yahoo Finance
Stocks US Politicians & Families Bought, Prior To The Ukraine Conflict
February 1 to February 24 | Periodic Transaction Report, public record of investments
Oneok, Inc. (NYSE:OKE)
Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET)
Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK)
FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE:FE)
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT)
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)
McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK)
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Block, Inc. (NYSE:SQ)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
US politicians are required to disclose their personal trades within 45 days of the transactions in an attempt to make personal investments by members of Congress, their staff, and public officials more transparent.
In December 2021, Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the United States House of Representatives, argued that it is a free economy and politicians along with their families should be treated as normal investors who participate in the stock market.
However, a vast majority disagrees with her, believing that public officials benefit from insider information to profit from market irregularities.
U.S. warns that Moscow has compiled lists of Ukrainians to target after invasion | CNBC
The U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. has said the U.S. has “credible information” that Russia has compiled lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” following an invasion.
Western officials have said that Russia may use false claims about the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for an invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Moscow should consider formally recognizing the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine as independent.
In a letter to the U.N.’s Human Rights chief, seen by NBC News, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Bathsheba Nell Crocker said the U.S. had “credible information” that Russia has compiled lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” following an invasion. The contents of the letter were first reported Sunday evening by The Washington Post.
“We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,”
2014 Minsk agreement
On 19 December 2014, US president Obama imposed sanctions on Russian-occupied Crimea by executive order prohibiting exports of US goods and services. Counter sanctions by Russia included a total ban on food imports from Australia, Canada, Norway, Japan, the United States and the European Union.
To ensure a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and Russia-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine, the Minsk agreement was signed on 5th September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group comprising of Ukraiune, Russia and OSCE.
The sanctions contributed to the collapse of the Russian ruble and the Russian financial crisis. Collateral and economic damage to many EU countries also ensued, with total losses estimated at €100 billion (as of 2015).
Sources
EU restrictive measures against Russia over Ukraine (since 2014)
Since March 2014, the EU has progressively imposed restrictive measures on Russia in response to the:
illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014
decision to recognise the non-government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as independent entities in 2022
unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine in 2022
The EU has imposed different types of sanctions:
individual restrictive measures
economic sanctions
diplomatic measures
restrictions on media
restrictions on economic relations with Crimea and Sevastopol, and with the non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk
restrictions on economic cooperation
$150 Trilion bonanza
Source: BoFA
“Transwarming” World: Net Zero Primer
by Haim Israel, Head of Global Thematic Investing Research at BofA Global Research
Climate change is reshaping more than just the natural environment — it’s also altering the way global society will function for the next millennium. In response, governments, nonprofits and the private sector are racing to find ways to limit the environmental consequences of a warming world.
One promising opportunity is net zero — the point where the total amount of carbon added to the atmosphere is equal to the amount removed, either by natural or technological means.
And therefore profit. Insanely ginormous amounts of profit!
Therefore, virtually every topic these days has to do with climate change, "net zero", green energy and ESG.
It’s clear that the price tag for achieving net zero is steep. While the public and private sectors have ramped up spending the past 20 years, from $33 billion in 2004 to $524 billion in 2020,2 that’s just a beginning.
The transition to a net zero economy by 2050 will cost an estimated $150 trillion or $5 trillion a year over the next 30 years.3 To put this into perspective, that’s equivalent to the entire annual U.S. tax base.
NYT | U.S. National Debt Tops $30 Trillion as Borrowing Surged Amid Pandemic
Source: US Federal Debt 2019
5IR
The Fifth Industrial Revolution (5IR) is the combination of humans and machines in the workplace.
The first revolution mechanised the textile industry. The second industrial revolution gave us the assembly line, high volume industrial production and high mass consumption.
The third allowed information to be captured in digital format and to be cost-effectively transformed, manipulated and transmitted.
The fourth industrial revolution has provided us with robotics, artificial intelligence, augmented reality, and virtual reality. There were nearly two centuries between the first and second industrial revolutions.
The third and fourth revolutions were hard on humans and hard on the environment. Previous generations had to adapt their lifestyle to what the machines could do.
The Fifth Industrial Revolution is different. Human beings are now front and centre in the production process.
Here is a non-exhaustive list of some of the changes in the Fifth Industrial Revolution
Many more people will regularly work remotely.
Menial administration will be performed by machines.
Implantable technologies for health and other purposes will become widespread, leading to a healthier, longer-living population.
3D printing will become more and more prevalent.
Chatbots will become a routine part of the customer experience.
Questions that have still to be fully answered include:
How will white-collar jobs change? Will they disappear completely, how will workers have to reconfigure their roles as routine work becomes automated?
How will we, as a society, respond to this? Values, institutions, a sense of identity.
Which countries will be affected the most? North / South
What will happen in countries with low internet adoption? Southern Africa.
What will happen to the costs of goods and services?
How will organisations build new trust relationships and psychological work contracts, How will all of us unlearn old habits and gear up for this new milieu?
The positive way of looking at this is to appreciate how AI and robotics significantly alter how we work, play and live by replacing repetitive and highly complex tasks and assisting us with decision-making. Less drudgery at work and more time to spend on important things.If we look at the previous revolutions, they have each brought some dislocation, but they have improved the quality of life for all. We have no reason to suspect that the Fifth Industrial Revolution will be different.
The World Economic Forum produced the “Future of Jobs Report” in 2018.The graph below depicts their view on the adoption on 5IR technologies.
Body Area Networks (BAN) Paper
A Body Area Network is formally defined by IEEE 802.15 as, "a communication standard optimized for low power devices and operation on, in or around the human body (but not limited to humans) to serve a variety of applications including medical, consumer electronics / personal entertainment and other" [IEEE 802.15].
In more common terms, a Body Area Network is a system of devices in close proximity to a persons body that cooperate for the benefit of the user.
Towards a bipolar world (1945–1953)
The end of the Second World War did not signal a return to normality; on the contrary, it resulted in a new conflict.
The major European powers that had been at the forefront of the international stage in the 1930s were left exhausted and ruined by the war, setting the scene for the emergence of two new global superpowers. Two blocs developed around the Soviet Union and the United States, with other countries being forced to choose between the two camps.
The USSR came out of the war territorially enlarged and with an aura of prestige from having fought Hitler’s Germany. The country was given a new lease of life by its heroic resistance to the enemy, exemplified by the victory at Stalingrad. The USSR also offered an ideological, economic and social model extending as never before to the rest of Europe. Furthermore, the Red Army, unlike the US army, was not demobilised at the end of the war. The Soviet Union thus had a real numerical superiority in terms of men and heavy weapons.
The United States was the great victor of the Second World War.
Its human and material losses were relatively low, and even though the US Army was almost completely demobilised a few months after the end of hostilities, the United States remained the world’s leading military power. Its navy and air force were unrivalled, and until 1949 it was the only country with the capacity to produce nuclear weapons. It also confirmed its status as the world’s leading economic power, in terms of both the volume of trade and industrial and agricultural production.
The US now owned more than two thirds of the world’s gold reserves and the dollar became the primary international currency.
The conflicts of interest between the new world powers gradually multiplied, and a climate of fear and suspicion reigned
Atlantic Council | Pivot Toward Pacific not Away from Middle East
The Obama Doctrine
While the US may be turning more towards the Pacific region strategically, it remains firmly involved with the Middle East operationally.
US interest in that part of the world goes back decades. The latest round can trace its origins to US deployments in August 1990 in response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. In the following two decades, US involvement has been steady through multiple operations such as Desert Fox, Northern and Southern Watch, Desert Strike, and events such as the attacks on the USS Cole and US embassies to name a few.
The US currently spends billions in the Middle East every year. Roughly 90,000 American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines are deployed in the Central Command Area of Responsibility and that doesn’t count the aircraft or ships that pass or rotate through. They aren’t leaving anytime soon.
The majority of American low-density, high-demand assets, such as special operations forces, electronic attack aircraft, and combat search and rescue teams are deployed to the region. The United States has long-term commitments, agreements, and common interests with its partners and allies in the region, including countless military-to-military exercises, agreements, and events.
The United States is not abandoning the Middle East by any stretch of the imagination.
Downsizing? Yes, of course! The president has been quite clear on that. US forces are out of Iraq and are slated to be (mostly) out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014. The American footprint is getting smaller. However, downsizing is not abandonment.
China’s Colour Revolution
The Ming dynasty officially the Great Ming, was the ruling dynasty of China from 1368 to 1644 following the collapse of the Mongol-led Yuan dynasty. This was a Jesuit sponsored colour revolution involving decades of careful planning, cultural and scientific exchange of esoteric matters, spiritual aspects of longevity and concepts of confusionism bushered in he ideas of liberty, fraternity and freedom to the west, including the concepts of re incarnation, transferance of energy & soul bodies, far eastern astrology, maps of the new world and antediluvian continents.
Between the first successful visit, in 1582, by Mateus Ricci and the stays of the Spanish Diego Pantoja, in 1601, the Portuguese Tomás Pereira, in 1673, or the French Jean de Fontaney, in 1688, many others visited China and translated European scientific books into Chinese, exchanging instruments, books, objects and letters with the Chinese scientific community. In 1701, there were 82 Jesuit missionaries in China.
Bretton Woods III & Gold Repatriation
When property rights on FX reserves held abroad are not respected, likewise
foreign central bank gold assets held in the BOE and New York Fed vaults are not beyond confiscation and reappropriation.
Recall, that the BOE refused the repatriation of 14 tons of Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) gold in 2018, whereby US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, lobbied their U.K. counterparts to help cut off the people from their overseas assets. Venezuela has since repatriated 160 out of the 211 tons of foreign held gold reserves.
"It's not enough that we all turn down the heating by 2 degrees now" given that "Russia covers 55 percent of German natural gas consumption." - BASF CEO
He emphasized that if Russian gas disappeared overnight, "many things would collapse here" - given that "we would have high levels of unemployment, and many companies would go bankrupt.
This would lead to irreversible damage."
"To put it bluntly: This could bring the German economy into its worst crisis since the end of the Second World War and destroy our prosperity. For many small and medium-sized companies in particular, it could mean the end.
Germany could be independent from Russia gas in four to five years" it remains that "LNG imports cannot be increased quickly enough to replace all Russian gas flows in the short term."
And what if, for example, Putin's demand for payment in rubles leads to an immediate stop in gas supplies?
"A delivery stop for a short time would perhaps open the eyes of many - on both sides. It would make clear the magnitude of the consequences. But if we don't get any more Russian gas for a long time, then we really have a problem here in Germany.
At BASF, we would have to scale back or completely shut down production at our largest site in Ludwigshafen if the supply fell significantly and permanently below 50 percent of our maximum natural gas requirement.
Minister Habeck has already activated the early warning level of the gas emergency plan."
Reuters | Putin tells Europe: Pay in roubles or we'll cut off your gas
Putin's decree on Thursday leaves Europe facing the prospect of losing more than a third of its gas supply. Germany, the most heavily reliant on Russia, has already activated an emergency plan that could lead to rationing in Europe's biggest economy.
Energy exports are Putin's most powerful lever as he tries to hit back against sweeping Western sanctions imposed on Russian banks, companies, businessmen and associates of the Kremlin in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Moscow calls its Ukraine action a "special military operation".